How our predictions work

Transparent AI-powered football forecasts, grounded in real data and published without edits.

FootballPredictions AI combines statistical data from the Sportmonks Football API with Claude, Anthropic's large language model, to produce forecasts for every match in our supported leagues. This page describes exactly how we do it and where the limits lie.

Data sources

Every prediction is built on two pillars:

• Sportmonks Football API — Live fixtures, squads, head-to-head history, team standings, recent form, lineups, and pre-match odds — refreshed on a schedule.
• Claude AI (Anthropic) — Context-aware analysis of tactical setups, injury impact, venue effects, and narrative factors that raw statistics miss. We use the latest Claude Sonnet model family.

The prediction pipeline

1. Ingest — Fixtures for the next 1–3 days are synced from Sportmonks on a schedule.
2. Contextual brief — For each fixture we assemble the last 5 matches of both sides, head-to-head history, current standings, and Sportmonks' statistical probabilities.
3. AI analysis — Claude receives the brief and returns a predicted outcome, score, probability distribution, key factors, full written summary, and FAQ — all in five languages in a single call.
4. Probability blending — Final probabilities are a 60/40 weighted blend of Claude's estimates and the Sportmonks statistical baseline.
5. Settlement — After the match, real results are recorded and accuracy metrics are backfilled. A post-match recap article is generated within an hour of the final whistle.

Multilingual content

Every prediction, preview, and recap is written natively in five languages — English, Spanish, Portuguese, Arabic, Chinese — in a single AI call, rather than machine-translated. Tactical terms, team names, and idioms fit each local audience.

Pre-match previews and post-match recaps

Alongside numerical predictions we generate long-form previews and recaps. Previews cover fixtures kicking off within 48 hours; recaps follow within an hour of the final whistle. Articles are grounded in the same data pipeline and cite only facts from the input context — no free-form invention.

Accuracy and transparency

Every prediction is time-stamped and version-tracked. We never backfill or edit predictions after kickoff. Our live hit-rate is published on the Accuracy page and updated after every round.

Limitations and honest caveats

• Predictions rely on available data — late injuries, weather changes, and in-game events are not captured.
• No prediction system beats chance long-term on highly volatile sports. Treat our output as one signal among many.
• Draws and upsets are inherently harder to predict than favourite wins.

Disclaimer

Predictions are for informational and entertainment purposes only. We do not provide betting or financial advice. Please gamble responsibly — if gambling is causing harm, seek help at BeGambleAware.org or your local support service.