Recent form
USA win probability: 45%
Confidence52%
World CupLos Angeles Stadium
FT
United States
4:1
Paraguay
AI analysis across six dimensions
Each dimension combines model output with available match context.
Team strength
Relative strength from outcome probabilities.
Confidence45%
Head-to-head history
1 previous meeting(s) considered.
Confidence10%
Statistical trends
Paraguay win probability: 27%
Confidence52%
AI sentiment
Overall model confidence for this forecast.
Confidence52%
Market signals
Draw probability: 28%
Confidence52%
Match odds
1X2
United States2.22
Draw3.57
Paraguay3.70
Handicap ±0.5
Home -0.5—
Away +0.5—
Odds unavailable
Over / Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.52.08
Under 2.51.92
Prediction
Predicted score
2-1
Confidence
52%
Prediction
United States
Outcome probabilities
United States · 45%Draw · 28%Paraguay · 27%
Key factor
- USA win probability: 45%
- Paraguay win probability: 27%
- Draw probability: 28%
- Both teams to score: 52%
- Over 2.5 goals: 48%
- Predicted score: USA 2-1 Paraguay
The United States host Paraguay in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage opener at Los Angeles Stadium on June 13. The USMNT are moderate favourites at 45% win probability, backed by home advantage and a talented European-based squad. A 2-1 USA victory is the central prediction, though Paraguay's defensive pedigree keeps the draw firmly in play at 28%.
Analysis by claude-sonnet-4-6 using Sportmonks fixture data
Lineups
ConfirmedUnited States
24
Freese
3
Richards
5
Robinson
13
Ream
16
Freeman
2
Dest
4
Adams
8
McKennie
10
Pulisic
17
Tillman
20
Balogun
Substitutes
- 1Matt TurnerGoalkeeper
- 6Auston TrustyDefender
- 7Giovanni ReynaMidfielder
- 9Ricardo PepiAttacker
- 11Brenden AaronsonMidfielder
- 12Miles RobinsonDefender
- 14Sebastian BerhalterMidfielder
- 15Cristian RoldánMidfielder
- 18Max ArfstenMidfielder
- 19Haji WrightAttacker
- 21Timothy WeahAttacker
- 22Mark McKenzieDefender
- 23Joe ScallyDefender
- 25Chris BradyGoalkeeper
- 26Álex ZendejasAttacker
Paraguay
12
Gill
3
Alderete
4
Cáceres
6
Alonso
15
Gómez
8
Gómez
10
Almirón
14
Cubas
16
Bobadilla
9
Sanabria
19
Enciso
Substitutes
- 1Roberto FernándezGoalkeeper
- 2Gustavo VelázquezDefender
- 5Fabián BalbuenaDefender
- 7Ramón SosaAttacker
- 11MauricioMidfielder
- 13José CanaleDefender
- 17KakuMidfielder
- 18Álex ArceAttacker
- 20Braian OjedaMidfielder
- 21Gabriel ÁvalosAttacker
- 22Gastón OlveiraGoalkeeper
- 23Matías Galarza FondaMidfielder
- 24Gustavo CaballeroAttacker
- 25Isidro PittaAttacker
- 26Alexandro MaidanaDefender
FAQ
The match kicks off on June 13, 2026 at 01:00 UTC (June 12 evening local time in Los Angeles) at Los Angeles Stadium.
Post-match recap
USA 4-1 Paraguay: USMNT Deliver Stunning World Cup Statement on Home Soil
The United States roared into the 2026 World Cup with a stunning 4-1 demolition of Paraguay, blowing past pre-match predictions and announcing themselves as genuine contenders on home soil.
Read article →Head-to-head
- United States4 : 1Paraguay