Each dimension combines model output with available match context.
Recent form
Athletico PR: W1 D3 L1 in last 5 matches
Confidence52%
Team strength
Athletico PR
Relative strength from outcome probabilities.
Confidence42%
Head-to-head history
1 previous meeting(s) considered.
Confidence10%
Statistical trends
Mirassol: W3 D1 L1 in last 5 matches
Confidence52%
AI sentiment
Overall model confidence for this forecast.
Confidence52%
Market signals
Athletico PR scored 3 goals and conceded 2 in last 5
Confidence52%
Match odds
1X2
Athletico PR2.38
Draw3.57
Mirassol3.33
Handicap ±0.5
Home -0.5—
Away +0.5—
Odds unavailable
Over / Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.53.13
Under 2.51.47
Prediction
Predicted score
1-0
Confidence
52%
Prediction
Draw
Outcome probabilities
Athletico PR · 42%Draw · 28%Mirassol · 30%
Key factor
Athletico PR: W1 D3 L1 in last 5 matches
Mirassol: W3 D1 L1 in last 5 matches
Athletico PR scored 3 goals and conceded 2 in last 5
Mirassol scored 7 goals and conceded 6 in last 5
Athletico PR home record: D, D in last two home games
No bookmaker priors or lineups available for this fixture
Athletico PR host Mirassol at the Arena de Baixada in Serie A Round 18 on May 30, 2026. The home side are marginal favourites at 42% probability, but Mirassol's impressive recent form — including wins over Corinthians, Bragantino, and Fluminense — makes this a closely contested fixture. A tight 1-0 home win is the most likely predicted scoreline, with an over 2.5 goals probability of just 32%.
Analysis by claude-sonnet-4-6 using Sportmonks fixture data
Lineups
Confirmed
Athletico PR
23
Santos
4
Dias
33
Aguirre
37
Esquivel
5
Felipinho
16
Jádson
26
Claudio
29
Benavídez
7
Mendoza
9
Viveros
10
Zapelli
Substitutes
2Gilberto Júnior Leite dos Santos
Defender
3Léo
Defender
8João Cruz
Midfielder
11Isaac
Attacker
20Julimar
Attacker
21Leozinho
Attacker
22Carlos Terán
Defender
42Matheus Soares
Goalkeeper
47Chiqueti
Midfielder
53Dudu
Midfielder
63Diogo Riquelme
Midfielder
70Renan Peixoto
Attacker
Mirassol
22
Walter
3
Machado
6
Reinaldo
20
Borges
34
Victor
7
Shaylon
8
Denilson
21
Aldo
77
Alesson
96
Eduardo
95
Carioca
Substitutes
2Lucas Oliveira
Defender
10Chico Kim
Midfielder
12Victor Luís
Defender
23Alex Muralha
Goalkeeper
25Neto Moura
Midfielder
33Eduardo
Midfielder
90Marco Göckel
Goalkeeper
99André Luis
Attacker
FAQ
Athletico PR are slight favourites at approximately 42% probability, with Mirassol rated at 30% and a draw at 28%. Home advantage at Arena de Baixada is the key differentiator.
Post-match recap
Athletico PR 1-0 Mirassol: Furacão Grind Out Vital Serie A Home Win
Athletico PR secured a narrow 1-0 home win over Mirassol in Serie A, extending their unbeaten run and continuing to build defensive solidity under pressure.