Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction | Serie A Apr 26

Fiorentina welcome Sassuolo to the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Matchday 34 of Serie A, a fixture that pits a streaky but experienced Viola side against an in-form Sassuolo outfit that has been quietly picking up points in recent weeks. Fiorentina's recent form reads W-D-D, with their last three games producing a 0-1 win at Hellas Verona, a 1-1 draw at home to Inter, and a 1-1 draw away at Lecce. The pattern suggests a team that rarely loses but also struggles to convert dominance into multiple-goal victories. At the Franchi, Fiorentina are typically compact and disciplined, relying on moments of individual quality to create separation. Their draw with Inter shows genuine defensive capability, but also a recurring inability to kill off matches. Sassuolo, meanwhile, have caught the eye with back-to-back wins — 2-1 against Como and 2-1 at Cagliari — sandwiching a creditable 1-1 draw away to Juventus. That away point at the Allianz Stadium is particularly telling: Sassuolo are not simply beating lower-ranked sides; they are competing and earning results against top-half opposition. Their attack has looked fluid, and their compact defensive shape has been difficult to break down in transition. The match context suggests a competitive, goal-rich affair. Neither side has shown a particular appetite for shutouts, and both attacks have been productive. BTTS looks strongly favoured, and over 2.5 goals carries a better-than-even probability. The main swing factor remains Fiorentina's home advantage — the Franchi faithful can lift the team and apply significant pressure in tight moments, and Sassuolo's away record, while decent, faces a sterner test here. Our model gives Fiorentina a 42% chance of winning, with the draw at 30% and Sassuolo at 28%. A predicted scoreline of 2-1 to the hosts captures the competitive balance while honouring the home edge. Confidence is moderate at 0.52 due to the absence of lineup confirmations and bookmaker reference lines.