Hibernian vs Hearts Prediction | Edinburgh Derby 2026
Premiership ·
Prediction
Hibernian
Predicted score
2-1
Confidence
42%
Hibernian host Hearts in the Edinburgh Derby at Easter Road in Round 34 of the Scottish Premiership on 26 April 2026. Our model gives Hibernian a slight home advantage at 37% win probability versus 33% for Hearts and 30% for a draw. The predicted score is 2-1 to the hosts, though confidence remains low at 0.42 due to the absence of form, standings, and lineup data.
Key stats
- Hibernian win probability: 37%
- Draw probability: 30%
- Hearts win probability: 33%
- Both teams to score: 58%
- Over 2.5 goals: 42%
- Prediction confidence: 42% (low — no form/lineup data)
Full analysis
Hibernian welcome city rivals Hearts to Easter Road Stadium in Round 34 of the Scottish Premiership — a fixture that needs no added motivation from either side. The Edinburgh Derby is one of the most fiercely contested local rivalries in British football, and every edition carries a weight that goes far beyond three league points.
With no current form data, league standings, or lineup information available, this prediction leans heavily on the historical and structural characteristics of this fixture. Hibernian, as the home side, hold a modest but genuine advantage playing in front of their own supporters in Leith. Easter Road has historically been a challenging venue for Hearts, and the atmosphere generated by the green-and-white faithful can be a decisive factor in close encounters.
Hearts, for their part, are no strangers to performing on the road in this derby. Historically, the Jambos have shown the ability to stifle Hibernian's attacking play and exploit transitions. This symmetry of strengths explains why the probabilities remain tightly clustered: Hibernian at 37%, Hearts at 33%, and the draw at 30%.
Both-teams-to-score sits at 58%, reflecting the attacking ambition both clubs typically display in this fixture despite the tactical caution that can characterize early exchanges. The over 2.5 goals line is less favoured at 42%, as derbies of this intensity often remain tight, with goalkeepers and defenders rising to the occasion under pressure.
With this being Round 34, league position implications could be highly significant, potentially influencing both teams' tactical approaches and substitution patterns. A team fighting for a top-six berth or managing a relegation battle would approach this fixture very differently from a side playing with freedom. Without standings data, we can only note this as a factor to monitor as kick-off approaches.
The predicted outcome is a narrow Hibernian home win, scored at 2-1, but analysts and supporters should treat this derby as one of the most open contests on the Scottish Premiership calendar. Confidence in any single outcome is inherently limited in city derby football.
FAQ
Based on historical home advantage at Easter Road and the structural dynamics of the Edinburgh Derby, Hibernian hold a slight edge at approximately 37% win probability, with Hearts at 33% and a draw at 30%.
Analysis by claude-sonnet-4-6 using Sportmonks fixture data