Who is predicted to win QPR vs Derby County on April 25 2026?

Derby County are slight favourites based on recent form, having recorded a win and a loss compared to QPR's back-to-back defeats.

What is the predicted score for Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?

A scoreline of 1-2 to Derby County is the most likely outcome based on current form analysis.

Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?

Both teams have scored in recent matches, giving a roughly even chance of both teams finding the net — estimated at around 50%.

Is there likely to be over 2.5 goals in this Championship match?

Over 2.5 goals is considered unlikely given both sides' low-scoring recent games, with probability estimated at around 42%.

What is QPR's recent form heading into this game?

QPR lost their last two matches — 1-2 at home to Swansea and 0-2 at Millwall — indicating a difficult run of form.

QPR vs Derby County Prediction – Championship April 2026

Prediction

Derby County

Predicted score

1-2

Confidence

45%

Queens Park Rangers host Derby County at Loftus Road in Round 45 of the Championship on April 25 2026. Derby County are marginal favourites based on superior recent form, with a predicted scoreline of 1-2 to the visitors. Both teams are expected to score in what should be a tightly contested late-season encounter.

Key stats

QPR: 2 consecutive defeats, 1 goal scored, 4 conceded
Derby: W1 L1 recent form, 2 goals scored, 2 conceded
Away win probability: 37% | Draw: 29% | Home win: 34%
Both teams to score: ~50%
Over 2.5 goals probability: ~42%
Predicted score: QPR 1-2 Derby County

Full analysis

Queens Park Rangers welcome Derby County to Loftus Road in what promises to be a tightly contested late-season Championship affair. With Round 45 of 46 on the horizon, the stakes are high for both clubs, though without league standings it is impossible to pinpoint exact survival or promotion implications. QPR's recent form is a cause for concern. Two successive defeats — a 1-2 reversal at home to Swansea City and a 0-2 loss away at Millwall — paint a picture of a side low on confidence and leaking goals. Conceding four goals in two matches while scoring just once suggests both defensive and creative struggles. The home setting at Loftus Road should theoretically provide a boost, but QPR's latest home outing ended in defeat, limiting the psychological lift that playing on familiar turf normally offers. Derby County arrive with a more measured recent record: a solid 1-0 home win over Oxford United followed by a 1-2 loss at Norwich City. The defeat in Norfolk is not particularly alarming given Norwich's quality, and the victory over Oxford shows Derby can be disciplined and clinical when needed. Their mini-form of W1 L1 is meaningfully stronger than QPR's L2 run. Championship home sides win roughly 43-45% of matches across a full season, but QPR's current slump erodes that baseline advantage. Adjusting for form differential, Derby hold a marginal edge as the predicted winners. However, with no bookmaker odds, no lineups, and no standings to anchor the analysis, confidence remains moderate. In terms of goals, both sides have posted relatively low-scoring games recently. The most likely outcome is a tight, competitive match with limited open play — typical of high-pressure late-season Championship football. Both teams are capable of scoring, but a cricket score is improbable. A 1-2 Derby victory emerges as the most plausible outcome, with the visitors capitalising on QPR's defensive lapses while protecting their lead with the organisation they showed against Oxford. Bettors and fans should note the elevated uncertainty here: no official odds, no team news, and a fixture at a critical juncture of the season all contribute to a wider range of possible outcomes than a typical mid-season game.

Key stats

Full analysis

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