Real Madrid vs Alavés Prediction | La Liga 2026-04-21

Real Madrid host Deportivo Alavés at the Santiago Bernabéu in what should be a routine, if not entirely straightforward, home victory in La Liga Round 33. The confirmed team sheets are a decisive analytical signal: Carlo Ancelotti has deployed a near full-strength side featuring Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham, Federico Valverde, and Aurélien Tchouaméni, supported by a recovered defensive line of Carvajal, Militão, and Alaba. This is one of the most talented starting elevens in European football. Real Madrid's recent form has been inconsistent by their own lofty standards. A 3-2 victory over Atlético Madrid showed what they are capable of at their best, but that result was bookended by a 2-1 loss at Mallorca and a 1-1 home draw with Girona. The inconsistency is real, but context matters: today's lineup is stronger than in those recent outings, and the opposition is significantly less challenging. Deportivo Alavés have been competitive in recent weeks but defensively unreliable. A 4-3 win at Celta de Vigo, a 2-2 draw with Osasuna, and a 3-3 draw at Real Sociedad all speak to a team that plays with energy and ambition but cannot hold firm against sustained pressure. Their forward line of Toni Martínez and Ibrahim Diabaté will need to be at their very best to threaten Andriy Lunin's goal, but Real Madrid's defense has shown occasional lapses and one moment of quality from Alavés cannot be entirely ruled out. Tactically, Alavés are expected to sit deep and compact. The deployment of Carles Aleñá as a defender is a clear signal that head coach Luis García Plaza is prioritizing defensive structure over offensive threat. Antonio Blanco and Jon Guridi will attempt to disrupt Real Madrid's rhythm in midfield, but against Bellingham and Valverde, that is a near-impossible assignment at this level. The Bernabéu atmosphere adds a further advantage to the hosts. Real Madrid at home in the closing stages of the season, with a world-class lineup, facing a side built for survival — the logic of a comfortable home win is overwhelming. Vinicius will attack the right side relentlessly, Mbappé will look to cut inside and shoot, and Bellingham's drives from deep will be a constant threat that Alavés simply lack the quality to neutralize. We predict a 3-1 win for Real Madrid, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score as supplementary markets of interest. Home win probability is estimated at 70%, draw at 18%, and away win at 12%.