FootballPredictions AI

Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction – Serie A Round 35

Serie A ·

Prediction
Roma
Predicted score
2-1
Confidence
52%

Roma host Fiorentina at the Stadio Olimpico in Serie A Round 35 on May 4, 2026. Roma are slight favourites based on superior recent form and home advantage, with a 42% win probability and a predicted score of 2-1. Fiorentina's defensive solidity keeps the draw at a credible 32%. Overall confidence is moderate at 0.52 due to the absence of lineup information.

Key stats

  • Roma form (last 5): W-D-W-L-W — 10 pts
  • Fiorentina form (last 4): D-D-W-D — 6 pts
  • Roma home win probability: 42%
  • Draw probability: 32%
  • Over 2.5 goals probability: 35%
  • Both teams to score: 42%

Full analysis

Roma welcome Fiorentina to the Stadio Olimpico in what promises to be a tightly contested Serie A Round 35 fixture. The Giallorossi arrive with the better recent momentum, having claimed 10 points from their last five league outings, including an impressive 2-0 away win at Bologna and a convincing 3-0 home victory over Pisa. A 1-1 draw with Atalanta and a heavy 5-2 defeat at Inter act as minor blemishes, but the overall trajectory for Roma looks positive heading into this encounter. Fiorentina, by contrast, have been mired in mediocrity. La Viola have collected just one win in their last four matches — a narrow 1-0 away triumph at Hellas Verona — and have drawn the other three, including a goalless stalemate at home to Sassuolo most recently. That result underlines a worrying lack of attacking sharpness, with Fiorentina scoring only two goals across four outings. At the Stadio Olimpico, Roma tend to press high and create space through their wide areas. Their attacking unit has looked purposeful at home, and without a lineup signal it remains to be seen who leads the line, but Roma's squad depth should give them the advantage over a Fiorentina side that appears to be playing conservatively and perhaps with one eye on the calendar. Fiorentina's tactical approach on the road has been compact and counter-attack oriented, which could make this a difficult game to break open. However, Roma's home dominance and superior form make them slight favourites. The absence of lineup data tempers overall confidence. A 2-1 Roma win is the most likely single outcome, though the draw remains a significant possibility given Fiorentina's resilience. Expect a physical, mid-tempo match decided by one or two key moments rather than a goal fest.

FAQ

Our model gives Roma a 42% probability of winning, based on their stronger recent form and home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico.

Analysis by claude-sonnet-4-6 using Sportmonks fixture data